Bay Area Real Estate Market Cycles

Out of recession comes recovery; recovery builds into market over-exuberance; over-exuberance leads to negative adjustment; negative adjustment sparks recession. Begin again.The scale, length and triggers of each part of different financial and real estate cycles can vary dramatically, but the stages and their sequence tend to be quite similar. NOTE: This is a condensed version of our much longer, full report (with many more charts),…

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Economic Context Factors Underlying Housing Markets

The real estate markets in the SF Bay Area are parts in an overall economic reality that includes a number of financial, demographic and psychological components – all of which are impacting each other in constantly changing ways. Some are local, and others reflect national or even international events or trends. They often run in parallel, but can also diverge or reverse themselves very suddenly,…

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Media Reports Suggest Major Bay Area Decline

The sources of the data behind the below (and many more) articles: an online survey by a PR company; an analysis of traffic on a real estate website; the alleged cost of a U-Haul to Las Vegas; anecdotal opinions from a handful of venture capitalists on a mid-west bus tour; and new U.S. census data, more often than not selectively or misleadingly quoted to sound…

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A Selection of Charts about Debt

Most of the charts below come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. We have not had time to comment on each chart and what we believe its significance to be (and, in any case, we are probably unqualified to do so), but you might still find them interesting. Increasing debt levels often play an enormous role in financial cycles. In our view, the…

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Long-Term Trends in San Francisco Real Estate

The great advantage of reviewing annual data is how often the market trend lines clarify into a straightforward dynamic, instead of the constant up and down fluctuations often seen in monthly or quarterly data charts. (Monthly data is constantly being abused by the media, when proper context is not given.) It is similar to standing back to look at a broad view of terrain as…

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No Let Up in SF Real Estate Market – a Paragon Report

So far in 2018, the market seems to have brushed aside any concerns about increasing home prices, rising interest rates, and new federal tax law changes. It is still very early in the year to come to definitive conclusions about where the year is going, but right now, in most market segments, buyer demand is competing ferociously for a limited supply of listings. This is…

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San Francisco Bay Area S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Since Case-Shiller Indices cover large areas – 5 counties in the SF Metro Area – which themselves contain communities and neighborhoods of widely varying home prices, the C-S chart numbers do not refer to specific prices, but instead reflect home prices as compared to those prevailing in January 2000, which have been designated as having a value of 100. Thus these charts are broad generalizations about appreciation (or…

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San Francisco Luxury Home Market Report

After cooling somewhat in late 2015 and 2016, the San Francisco luxury home market bounced back in 2017 to hit new highs in the number of sales. Note: Our report online contains several dozen updated analyses of the San Francisco luxury and ultra-luxury house and condo markets, of which this newsletter contains a relatively small sample. The full report is here: Paragon SF Luxury Home Report….

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SF Spring Events Calendar

There are plenty of fun things to enjoy in the city this Spring. Take a peek at these events in our Spring 2018 events guide.


Housing Affordability in the San Francisco Bay Area

The California Association of Realtors recently released its Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for the 4th quarter of 2017, which measures the percentage of households that can afford to buy the median priced single family dwelling (house). In this analysis, affordability is affected by 3 major factors: county median house price, mortgage interest rates, and the distribution of household incomes within the county. (Housing Affordability Index…

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